5-Year Treasury Note the file, every extreme since 2006

separate extremes on file (back-to-back extreme weeks count once), numbered on the chart, none hidden

10 ended in a reversal within 13 weeksthe ones that turned took a median 4 wksworst run ever sat through 9.3%what marked those turns → measured in this file

3y percentile

100.0

cot index

100.0

z-score · 156w

1.61

weeks in zone

report as of

2026-09-15

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#34 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #33 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #32 SHORT ● TURN 2025-04-03 · #31 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #30 SHORT ● TURN 2024-07-11 · #29 SHORT ● TURN 2023-12-14 · #28 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #25 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #24 LONG ● TURN 2021-09-27 · #23 LONG ● TURN 2021-02-25 · #22 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #21 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #20 LONG ● TURN 2019-10-11 · #19 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #18 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #17 SHORT ● TURN 2018-05-29 · #16 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #14 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #13 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2016-01-20 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #6 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #5 LONG ● TURN 2011-10-07 · #4 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #3 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #2 LONG ● TURN 2008-04-02 · #1 LONG ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 4 WKS · WORST RUN 9.3%#34 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #33 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #32 SHORT ● TURN 2025-04-03 · #31 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #30 SHORT ● TURN 2024-07-11 · #29 SHORT ● TURN 2023-12-14 · #28 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #25 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #24 LONG ● TURN 2021-09-27 · #23 LONG ● TURN 2021-02-25 · #22 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #21 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #20 LONG ● TURN 2019-10-11 · #19 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #18 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #17 SHORT ● TURN 2018-05-29 · #16 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #14 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #13 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2016-01-20 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #6 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #5 LONG ● TURN 2011-10-07 · #4 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #3 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #2 LONG ● TURN 2008-04-02 · #1 LONG ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 4 WKS · WORST RUN 9.3%

the 5-Year Treasury Note report →is 5-Year Treasury Note stretched now? →

Every UST 5Y trade on file · 34 since 2006+

Historical analysis for information and education only, not advice, not a recommendation, not a solicitation. Results are model-based (front-month price proxies, weekly data), can contain errors, and would differ with costs, slippage and live execution. Past performance is no indicator of future results.

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Every UST 5Y extreme since 2006, numbered on the chart: which ones turned, which ones never did, and how much of the move was still there by the time it fired.

every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019

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