NOWCAST · AN ESTIMATE OF THE NEXT REPORT, SCORED AGAINST IT
The nowcast, graded in public.
median market hit rate, last 52 graded weeks. A coin flip gets 50.
Friday’s COT report is already three days old when it lands. Our nowcast estimates, every day, what the big speculators have likely done since Tuesday’s cut-off. It learns, per market, how price moves and position changes have lined up in the past · and it never peeks ahead: each estimate uses only what was known that day. Every Friday the new report arrives and each market’s estimate is graded: did it call the direction of the change right, or not.
A coin flip would be right about half the time. That is the bar to beat. Below: every market’s hit rate over the last 52 graded weeks, good and bad. An estimate is model output, not data. The report itself always wins.
all 44 graded markets · zero hidden · misses stay on the board
The estimate is only useful next to the report it updates. See where the crowd stands in every market, and how stretched each one is.
This week’s COT report →HOW A WEEK IS GRADED
Each Friday the report prints the real change since Tuesday. If the estimate had the same sign, the week counts as right. No partial credit.
WHAT A TICK IS
One graded Friday: green called the direction, faded missed it. The strips show the last 26 so the misses stay visible.
THE FINE PRINT
An estimate is model output, not data. The report itself always wins, and it grades us whether we like the grade or not.