The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, explained
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly U.S. CFTC release that shows how long or short each trader group is in the futures markets. cotreport grades what happens after positioning gets one-sided, and the honest answer is that, most of the time, not much.
What's in it
The CFTC publishes the report every Friday at 15:30 ET, with positions measured as of the prior Tuesday's close, so it is already three days old when it lands. It breaks each market into trader groups and reports how many contracts each is long and short. cotreport expresses every position as net % of open interest so markets of different sizes can be compared, and scores how one-sided today's reading is against the market's own three-year range (its 3-year percentile).
Who the groups are
The disaggregated report splits traders into managed money (funds and momentum traders, the speculative crowd), commercials (producers and merchants hedging a physical business), and other reportables. cotreport treats managed money as “the crowd” and grades what happens after it crowds onto one side.
Does crowded positioning predict reversals?
Mostly no, and this is the finding cotreport is built on. Across 1,206 positioning extremes since 2006, the pooled reversal rate within eight weeks was about 39.7%, versus a roughly 38% ordinary-week baseline, an edge of about one and a half points. Across 930 testable market/definition/horizon cells, zero survived multiple-testing correction (Benjamini–Hochberg FDR at q=0.10) plus out-of-sample confirmation. In plain terms: a crowded COT reading is a risk state, not a countdown.
That is why cotreport prints every conditional reversal rate next to its baseline, publishes the strategies that failed, and forward-tests its calls in public. The map is measured; nothing here is a prediction. See the methodology for every rule and correction, the backtest for the full record, and the glossary for every term.
Common questions
What is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report?
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that breaks down long and short positions by trader type in U.S. futures markets. Positions are measured as of Tuesday and published the following Friday at 15:30 ET.
Does COT positioning predict reversals?
Mostly no. Across 1,206 positioning extremes since 2006, cotreport measured a pooled reversal rate of about 39.7% within eight weeks, versus a roughly 38% ordinary-week baseline, an edge of about one and a half points. Zero of 930 testable cells survived multiple-testing correction plus out-of-sample confirmation. A positioning extreme is a risk state, not a reversal signal.
How often does a crowded COT reading reverse?
About 39.7% of the time within eight weeks when pooled across all 44 markets, against a baseline near 38%. Some individual markets run a little higher or lower, but on the whole a crowded reading barely changes the odds.
When is the COT report released?
The CFTC releases it every Friday at 15:30 ET (20:30 UTC in U.S. summer). The positions in it are already three days old, measured as of the prior Tuesday's close.
Who are the trader groups in the COT report?
The disaggregated report splits traders into managed money (funds and momentum traders, the speculative crowd), commercials (producers and merchants hedging a physical business), and other reportables. cotreport treats managed money as the crowd and grades what happens after it piles into one side.
Is the COT report useful for trading?
As context, yes; as a signal, no. It tells you where the crowd is standing, which is worth knowing, but a one-sided reading is not a countdown to a reversal: the measured edge over baseline is small and did not survive statistical correction. cotreport publishes every base rate, and the failures, so you can judge for yourself.
Statistics, not advice · Not affiliated with the CFTC · figures per research release r2