Tonight’s report, regraded across all 44 markets. What moved, where the crowd is stretched, what the files say. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

cotreport* view in browser ●  THE NEW REPORT IS IN · ALL 44 FILES REGRADED AND CHECKED · EVERY NUMBER BELOW IS THIS WEEK’S REGRADE THE FRIDAY LETTER · AUG 17, 2026 · REPORT OF AUG 11, 2026 Five markets are crowded. One file is open. You are about to pile into a trade the whole crowd is already in. Everyone sells you the reversal: we counted how often it actually happens. Here is what moved in Friday’s CFTC filing, where the crowd is stretched, and what twenty years of receipts say came next. Ninety seconds. No hype. No homework. ★ THE TAKE · LETTER EXCLUSIVE · NOT ON THE SITE The Take is a letter-exclusive read, sent only to Friday Letter subscribers. It is free: subscribe at cotreport.ai. BIGGEST MOVE SUGAR +12.2 pts OI RUNNER-UP NASDAQ EMINI −9.1 pts OI THIRD PLATINUM −6.0 pts OI ★ THE VERDICT · FREE · EVERY NUMBER OPEN BITCOIN  CROWD LONG 97 of 100 WEEK 12 AT THE EXTREME · RECORD IS 16 MAX SHORT 3-YEAR RANGE MAX LONG 38% TURNED ≤ 8 WKS · ANY WK 37% 6 wks MEDIAN WAIT −48.4% WORST SIT-THROUGH The week itself: specs trimmed 0.4 points of open interest (added 625 longs · added 512 shorts), and bitcoin still sits at the 97th slot of its three-year range. Read that as a risk state, not a countdown. The plain call: 38% turned inside eight weeks against a 37% ordinary week, so this crowd reads as close to a coin flip, not an edge. Open the full file, free → FOUR MORE FILES · PRO DOW EMINI  LONG · WK 3 ••% turn · •• wks  PRO ETHER  LONG · WK 3 ••% turn · •• wks  PRO NASDAQ EMINI  SHORT · WK 2 ••% turn · •• wks  PRO UST 2Y  LONG · WK 2 ••% turn · •• wks  PRO STRONGEST FINGERPRINT THIS WEEK: DOW EMINI · 2 OF 6 OWN TURN CONDITIONS PRESENT → IN PRO Turn rate, median wait and worst drawdown, from 1,206 backtested extremes since 2006, out-of-sample confirmed 2019→. Numbers a skeptic can attack, because we attacked them first. OPEN TRADES · THE BACKTEST, STILL TRADING Every new extreme enters by the frozen rule, blind on purpose, and sits here until its 13-week window closes. A measurement, not a recommendation. The bar is the move that counts as a turn; only Friday’s pipeline confirms one. NASDAQ EMINI #30 FADE LONG · WK 13/13 +4.2% · bar 5.8% RUNNING NATGAS #25 FADE LONG · WK 11/13 −16.4% · bar 47.3% RUNNING RBOB #35 FADE SHORT · WK 10/13 −10.3% · bar 13.0% RUNNING LEAN HOGS #26 FADE LONG · WK 10/13 −8.6% · bar 11.1% RUNNING SP500 EMINI #27 FADE LONG · WK 10/13 +5.4% · bar 3.7% PAST THE LINE BITCOIN #10 FADE SHORT · WK 7/13 −5.0% · bar 10.7% RUNNING GBPUSD #29 FADE LONG · WK 7/13 +2.3% · bar 1.9% PAST THE LINE CLOSED LAST WEEK · WIN OR LOSE, ON THE RECORD NASDAQ EMINI #30 FADE LONG · 2026-08-17 graded in the file NO TURN IN 13 WKS THE LEDGER · ALL 44 MARKETS SHORT ← 3-YEAR RANGE → LONG · GREEN FILL = WHERE THE CROWD SITS METALS · 5 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK COPPER  WATCH 95 +0.4 GOLD 80 −0.8 PALLADIUM 68 +2.2 PLATINUM 60 −6.0 SILVER 24 −1.0 ENERGY · 4 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK CRUDE WTI 30 −0.4 HEATOIL 60 +0.7 NATGAS 17 +0.9 RBOB  WATCH 92 −1.5 GRAINS · 8 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK CORN 82 −0.7 OATS 82 −2.0 ROUGH RICE 74 +0.8 SOYBEANS 79 −2.3 SOYBEAN MEAL 74 −0.6 SOYBEAN OIL  WATCH 87 +0.1 WHEAT HRW  WATCH 94 −1.7 WHEAT SRW  WATCH 88 −1.7 SOFTS · 4 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK COCOA 20 −1.2 COFFEE 32 +0.0 COTTON  WATCH 92 +2.4 SUGAR 61 +12.2 LIVESTOCK · 3 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK FEEDER CATTLE 37 +0.8 LEAN HOGS  WATCH 5 −1.8 LIVE CATTLE 33 +1.6 FX · 9 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK AUDUSD 67 −0.9 CADUSD 21 +1.4 CHFUSD 78 +0.4 EURUSD  WATCH 10 −0.2 GBPUSD  WATCH 14 +1.5 JPYUSD 51 +0.1 MXNUSD 44 −2.9 NZDUSD 34 −0.4 USDX  WATCH 91 +0.1 EQUITY · 5 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK DOW EMINI  CROWD LONG 97 −1.3 NASDAQ EMINI  CROWD SHORT 1 −9.1 RUSSELL EMINI 25 −1.8 SP500 EMINI  WATCH 91 +1.8 VIX  WATCH 10 −3.1 RATES · 4 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK UST 10Y 28 +1.8 UST 2Y  CROWD LONG 98 −0.5 UST 5Y  WATCH 93 +1.5 UST BOND  WATCH 15 −0.2 CRYPTO · 2 MARKETS PCT · ΔWK BITCOIN  CROWD LONG 97 −0.4 ETHER  CROWD LONG 96 −0.8 NOWCAST This report is already 3 days old. Pro’s nowcast estimates what specs have done since: daily, all 44 markets, 62% directionally right over 52 weeks. See the nowcast → WHY PRO Every other COT letter gives you an opinion. This one gives you the record. Pro opens the four locked files above, plus every market’s backtest file, what marked its turns (and how much of the move was left after they fired), and the nowcast read in each file: so you’re never blindsided by a report that’s already three days old. The verdict is free; the receipts are Pro, the ones every signal-seller hopes you never check. Start Pro · €9/month → CANCEL ANYTIME · PRICES INCL. VAT WHERE APPLICABLE · UNLOCKS IN SECONDS Statistics, not advice. Data and models can contain errors; past patterns are no indicator of future results. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. The map is ours, the trade is yours. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); COT data comes from its public reports. Ventus XII Management GmbH, Wien · statistics about the past, not advice. Impressum · Datenschutz · unsubscribe