THE FORWARD TEST · NATURAL GAS FILE · TRADE #25 · ENTERED BY THE FROZEN RULE
Natural Gas · crowd short · Jun 2026 live · week 10 of 13 · no graded check cleared yet
fade long · close-to-close · week 10 of 13 · provisional until Friday’s grade
On May 26, 2026 the natural gas crowd was net short past 96% of its own three-year range, so the frozen rule faded it at the Jun 1, 2026 open. It is still running: week 10 of 13, down 17.1% so far, and it has not cleared a graded check yet. The worst point so far is 17.1% against you, and there is no stop in this test: the clock closes the window at week 13, not a decision.
WHY THIS TRADE EXISTS
No one chose it. The rule enters every extreme it sees, at the next session’s open, blind, on purpose. This file answers one question: what was the extreme worth, measured against every comparable extreme in natural gas’s own record? The published answer is “not much”. Most cases do not turn. That is exactly why the file records what else was present when this market did turn.
Why no stop, no exit? Because this is a measurement, not a managed position. The question is what the extreme was worth under one frozen rule, every time: a stop would smuggle discretion and survivorship back into the record. The adverse sit-through is published for exactly that reason, and the clock, not a choice, closes the window at W13.
natural gas’s record: 7 of 24 comparable extremes turned inside the window · median wait 21 wks · this one: still under at week 10
THE FILE · NOTES AS IT RUNS
WEEK 10 · LATEST
live -17.1% close-to-close · provisional: only Friday’s pipeline confirms a grade.
JUN 29 · AFTER THE W4 GRADE
under its bar: -1.8% vs +26.3% needed · 17% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
JUN 15 · AFTER THE W2 GRADE
under its bar: -5.6% vs +18.0% needed · 25% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
JUN 8 · AFTER THE W1 GRADE
under its bar: -5.6% vs +12.4% needed · 28% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
JUN 1 · WK 0 · ENTRY
entered at the open. the extreme alone is worthless; this file is everything else that was present.
● THE READ · PLAIN TEXT, GATE BY GATE
AS OFNo grade yet: under its bar through the W4 gate. 17% of the still-under cases on file turned later. Patience is the read, not conviction.
written by the numbers · the read re-writes itself as each Friday grade lands · click a gate or scrub the chart below · a measurement, not a recommendation
THE DIRECTION▲ LONG · FADING THE SHORT CROWD
The crowd is short; this file bets against it, long from the entry arrow below the bars. Trend-following, the other classic COT read, would ride with the crowd (short here): same tape, mirror sign · where this fade reads −17.1%, riding the crowd reads +17.1%. We pre-registered follow-the-crowd rules across the whole record too: no edge either. the tables →
THE TRADE ON THE TAPE · DAILY PRICE · one numbered entry: this one · gate ticks mark the window
all entries on the full chart →WHY −17.1% AND NOT MORE · the band draws the whole path, the number is only where it ends. This trade has been as good as +5.2% and as bad as −17.1% since entry. It sits at −17.1% because price gave back 22.3 points from the peak. Marked to the latest close, never to the best one.
gold band = this trade’s run, entry → latest bar · daily price bars · entry arrow and gate ticks mark the 13-week window · drag to pan, scroll to zoom · positioning history lives on the weekly backtest chart · front-month proxy
THE PATH VS THE RECORD · TWO CORRIDORS · green = where past turns ran · red = where ran-ons drifted · dots = every case at the cursor gate
AT GATE
W4 of 13
hover the chart to scrub
THIS TRADE
-1.8%
its bar here: +26.3%
TURNED BY HERE
2
of 24 on the record
OF THOSE STILL UNDER
17% turned later
a read on late turns, not a promise
GRADED GATES · FORWARD ODDS
latest gate on top · click a gate to move the cursor · forward odds = of past extremes over their bar at that gate, the share still over at W13 · what would mark the turn →
pro · the conditions are in the file
Every condition at trade #25’s entry, measured against natgas’s own turned-vs-ran-on record, with a lean per condition.
every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019
Unlock everything · €49/mo →trade #25 of 25 on natural gas · entry at the first session open after the friday release · fade the crowd, no filters, no discretion · graded against 0.75× own volatility, √time scaled, within 13 weeks · continuous front-month file, close-to-close, roll gaps included, no costs/slippage · a turn is only awarded by the weekly pipeline · out-of-sample era · win or lose, this file stays. methodology → · what we tested and buried →