why you check every friday
The great turns, every one began at an extreme this site flags.
The fifteen biggest snap-backs since 2006, ranked by what betting against the crowd paid over 26 weeks. Every one of them started as an ordinary crowded week: the same kind you see on the stretched board right now. This is what it looks like when the spring lets go.
crowd short · 2020-09
crypto
BITCOIN
- paid (26w)
- +434.8%
- turn took
- 7w
- ran against first
- 5.6%
trade #3 in the BITCOIN file →
crowd short · 2020-11
energy
RBOB
- paid (26w)
- +98.2%
- turn took
- 11w
- ran against first
- -3.2%
trade #29 in the RBOB file →
crowd short · 2007-12
energy
NATGAS
- paid (26w)
- +83.8%
- turn took
- 8w
- ran against first
- 0.3%
trade #3 in the NATGAS file →
crowd short · 2013-11
softs
COFFEE
- paid (26w)
- +78.4%
- turn took
- 5w
- ran against first
- 1.4%
trade #9 in the COFFEE file →
crowd short · 2010-06
grains
WHEAT SRW
- paid (26w)
- +71.9%
- turn took
- 4w
- ran against first
- 1.7%
trade #7 in the WHEAT SRW file →
crowd short · 2010-05
grains
WHEAT HRW
- paid (26w)
- +68.6%
- turn took
- 5w
- ran against first
- 4.7%
trade #7 in the WHEAT HRW file →
crowd short · 2007-08
metals
SILVER
- paid (26w)
- +68.0%
- turn took
- 3w
- ran against first
- 0.0%
trade #4 in the SILVER file →
crowd short · 2012-01
grains
SOYBEAN MEAL
- paid (26w)
- +67.7%
- turn took
- 5w
- ran against first
- 0.6%
trade #10 in the SOYBEAN MEAL file →
crowd short · 2020-09
energy
HEATOIL
- paid (26w)
- +67.3%
- turn took
- 11w
- ran against first
- 1.1%
trade #27 in the HEATOIL file →
crowd short · 2010-06
grains
CORN
- paid (26w)
- +64.2%
- turn took
- 6w
- ran against first
- 0.6%
trade #7 in the CORN file →
crowd short · 2006-01
metals
COPPER
- paid (26w)
- +64.2%
- turn took
- 3w
- ran against first
- 1.2%
trade #1 in the COPPER file →
crowd short · 2025-04
metals
PALLADIUM
- paid (26w)
- +60.0%
- turn took
- 10w
- ran against first
- 2.2%
trade #36 in the PALLADIUM file →
crowd short · 2007-12
grains
OATS
- paid (26w)
- +57.6%
- turn took
- 2w
- ran against first
- -1.3%
trade #2 in the OATS file →
crowd long · 2007-07
metals
PALLADIUM
- paid (26w)
- +55.0%
- turn took
- 0w
- ran against first
- 0.0%
trade #3 in the PALLADIUM file →
crowd short · 2010-08
energy
RBOB
- paid (26w)
- +52.8%
- turn took
- 10w
- ran against first
- 3.9%
trade #6 in the RBOB file →
THE FULL RECORD BEHIND THIS GALLERY
Across all 1,178 graded extremes since 2006, the crowd’s own side returned a median 0.0% over the following 26 weeks. The extreme alone tells you almost nothing: that is the point of this site, and these fifteen are what the rare exceptions looked like.
Why 14 of these 15 began with the crowd short: these are returns on the position, and a fade of a short crowd is a LONG, which can pay any multiple of what you put up. A fade of a long crowd is a short, and a short cannot make more than 100% because the price cannot fall below zero. Any table ranked by what the fade paid will fill up with the first kind. It says nothing about which side turns more often: across every graded extreme on file, 44% of short crowds and 38% of long crowds turned inside 13 weeks.
ranked by what the fade actually returned over 26 weeks, counting only cases that turned within 13 weeks · winners only, on purpose: the cases that never turned sit in every market’s backtest, same table, same depth