10-Year Treasury Note the file, every extreme since 2006

separate extremes on file (back-to-back extreme weeks count once), numbered on the chart, none hidden

14 ended in a reversal within 13 weeksthe ones that turned took a median 3.8 wksworst run ever sat through 8.9%what marked those turns → measured in this file

3y percentile

12.2

cot index

19.7

z-score · 156w

-1.39

weeks in zone

—

report as of

2026-08-04

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#37 SHORT ● TURN 2025-04-30 · #36 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #35 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #34 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #33 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #32 SHORT ● TURN 2023-04-04 · #31 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #30 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #29 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #28 LONG ● TURN 2021-09-28 · #27 LONG ● TURN 2021-06-23 · #26 LONG ● TURN 2021-03-08 · #25 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #24 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #23 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #22 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #21 LONG ● TURN 2017-12-20 · #20 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #19 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #18 LONG ● TURN 2016-11-09 · #17 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #16 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ● TURN 2015-01-09 · #14 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ● TURN 2010-05-04 · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2010-02-05 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ● TURN 2008-08-20 · #6 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #5 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #4 LONG ● TURN 2007-05-22 · #3 LONG ● TURN 2007-01-17 · #2 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #1 LONG ● TURN 2006-02-14 · MEDIAN TURN 3.8 WKS · WORST RUN 8.9%#37 SHORT ● TURN 2025-04-30 · #36 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #35 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #34 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #33 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #32 SHORT ● TURN 2023-04-04 · #31 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #30 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #29 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #28 LONG ● TURN 2021-09-28 · #27 LONG ● TURN 2021-06-23 · #26 LONG ● TURN 2021-03-08 · #25 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #24 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #23 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #22 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #21 LONG ● TURN 2017-12-20 · #20 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #19 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #18 LONG ● TURN 2016-11-09 · #17 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #16 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ● TURN 2015-01-09 · #14 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ● TURN 2010-05-04 · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2010-02-05 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ● TURN 2008-08-20 · #6 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #5 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #4 LONG ● TURN 2007-05-22 · #3 LONG ● TURN 2007-01-17 · #2 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #1 LONG ● TURN 2006-02-14 · MEDIAN TURN 3.8 WKS · WORST RUN 8.9%

the 10-Year Treasury Note report →is 10-Year Treasury Note stretched now? →

Every UST 10Y trade on file · 37 since 2006+

Historical analysis for information and education only, not advice, not a recommendation, not a solicitation. Results are model-based (front-month price proxies, weekly data), can contain errors, and would differ with costs, slippage and live execution. Past performance is no indicator of future results.

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Every UST 10Y extreme since 2006, numbered on the chart: which ones turned, which ones never did, and how much of the move was still there by the time it fired.

every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019

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