THE WEEKLY VERDICT · NEW WITH EVERY REPORT
How realistic is the turn?
The verdict, market by market.
You bring the entry · ranges, news-failure, zones, whatever you trade. This is the layer on top of it: which markets are even set up this week, each graded against every comparable case since 2006. Most weeks the honest grade is a coin flip, and we say so. This week 7 of 44 qualify. The verdict on each, below.
the call this week
Out of 100 comparable weeks, how many actually turned · with the ordinary-week rate right beside it. If they match, that is a coin flip, and we say so. Every row opens that market’s file.
The crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP▸ OUR FADE · WK 6 OF 13 GRADEDThe crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP▸ OUR FADE · WK 9 OF 13 GRADEDThe crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP◌ NO TRADE TAKEN YETThe crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP◌ NO TRADE TAKEN YETThe crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP◌ NO TRADE TAKEN YETThe crowd is all-in short, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 41 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 39 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP▸ OUR FADE · WK 12 OF 13 GRADEDThe crowd is all-in long, about as one-sided as it gets. Feels like an easy fade. Across every comparable case since 2006, 38 of 100 turned within 8 weeks · versus 37 normally. Almost identical: this extreme is telling you almost nothing.
COIN FLIP◌ NO TRADE TAKEN YETWant the receipts behind a call · every case since 2006 including the ones that failed, how long the turn took, how far it first ran against you? That is the detailed board below, one click into any file.
THE CONFIRMATION LAYER · SIX CHECKS ON EVERY MARKET
You bring the entry. Before you take it, six questions have measured answers · every one a counted frequency from the graded record, never a forecast.
1 · THE STRETCH
How one-sided is the crowd against its own 3 years?
free, on the board below
2 · THE CONDITIONS
How many of the measured turn conditions are on today's tape? Matched extremes beat unmatched by +0.22R out of sample.
🔒 Pro · per market
3 · THE CROWD NOW
Report is Tuesday's photo. Is the crowd still building, or already leaving? Graded weekly, 62.5% median.
free direction · Pro magnitude
4 · THE FIRST CLOSE
In 489 graded turns the first close against the crowd came ~2 days in · with 81% of the move still ahead. Whether it has happened here yet, per market.
state free · alerts Pro
5 · THE ROOM
The median shakeout past turns here took first · the stop that survived being right, with the worst case beside it.
🔒 Pro · per market
6 · THE CLOCK
Median weeks to the turn, the 13-week window, and how many cases never turned at all.
🔒 Pro · per market
STRETCHED THIS WEEK · ONE AXIS + THE ODDS
7 markets at a crowd extreme · click a row for its numbers + its fileaxis = the crowd’s position inside its own 3-year range · past the lime line = the top 5% that defines “stretched” · ★ = open in full, free: this week’s stretched pick and the Gold specimen
odds = how often situations like this one snapped back within 8 weeks, counted since 2006 · fingerprint = how many of the conditions from this market’s own past turns are here again today · most situations like these did NOT turn · a measurement, not a recommendation · new to the words? the 60-second glossary →
the receipts every signal-seller hopes you never check
Which weeks deserve a trade? We graded all 1,206.
Of those, 1,192 have a graded outcome, and the crowd reversed inside the 13-week window in 41% of them. Fewer than half. That is the answer nobody selling COT signals will give you. Every case is here, free, wins and losses, none deleted, our own failed protocol included. Pro is the weekly verdict on top of your own read: each crowded market graded on its record, what marked its past turns and whether any of it is on today’s tape, the stop that survived, and how long the wait ran · the layer of measurement over the entry you already trade.
Every case since 2006
How often each crowd extreme actually turned, the wait, the worst it ran against you. All 44 markets.
The odds on every stretched market
The turn rate and snap-back odds on every crowded market the week it is crowded, not just the one free file.
The turn fingerprint
The exact conditions at this market's past turns, checked against today's tape.
You’re Pro. All 7 files are open.
Every stretched market’s file and all 43 backtests, updated daily · Friday alerts follow your watchlist
The questions are free. The answers are €49.
Every stretched market’s file and all 43 backtests, every week, updated daily · cancel anytime
The Friday Letter
Every Friday 21:30 CET the new report lands and we regrade all 1,206 cases overnight. Confirm and your crowd-map snapshot arrives right away. Then every Friday: what moved, where the crowd is stretched, and which fades are running in public. And the moment we open one, you get the ping. Free.
Every Friday: where the crowd is stretched, what is running, what it cost. Free.
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These are statistics about the past, not advice. Most comparable setups did NOT turn. A reading here means the odds have historically been better than normal, never certain. Our data and models can contain errors; past extremes do not predict future turns, and futures losses can exceed your deposit. The decision, and its full risk, is yours.