stretched / energy / RBOB · data through 2026-08-04
Big speculators have been betting on RBOB rising for 3 weeks, a bigger bet than in 97% of the last 3 years. When a market gets this one-sided, it sometimes snaps back hard. Below: what happened every other time it looked like this.
the book: 94,331 long vs 36,024 short · this week specs cut 6,247 longs · covered 2,285 shorts
This fade is running live
We are fading this exact crowd · trade #35, week 9 of 13
Watch it grade in public, win or lose.
STEP 1 · THE REPORT & THE CHART
Who holds what in RBOB
The COT report you already read, on a chart. Free.
STEP 2 · THE BACKTEST
Every past extreme, numbered
What turned, what didn’t, what each one cost to hold. Free.
STEP 3 · THE CONFIRMATION LAYER
You bring the entry. This is what sits on top of it: how far along this setup is, what marked the turns here before, how much room it needed, and how long the wait ran.
HOW OFTEN A CROWD THIS SIZE ACTUALLY TURNED
pro · the full confirmation layer
Before you take this trade: how often RBOB actually turned from a crowd this size, how far past turns ran against the trade before they worked, and what the worst case on file says about your size.
every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019
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These are statistics about the past, not advice. Most comparable setups did NOT turn. A reading here means the odds have historically been better than normal, never certain. Our data and models can contain errors; past extremes do not predict future turns, and futures losses can exceed your deposit. The decision, and its full risk, is yours.