“Specs are net long 200,000 contracts” sounds dramatic and means nothing. Is that a lot? For this market? Versus when? Levels need context; percentiles carry it.
The measurement
We take the specs’ net position as a share of open interest and rank today against the same market’s own last 156 weeks. The result is one comparable number for all 44 markets: the 3-year percentile. 50th = normal. 97th = the crowd has leaned harder only rarely in three years.
What the 99th percentile is not
It is not a sell signal. We measured every extreme since 2006, and most did not turn inside a 13-week window. Extremes can get more extreme, and sit there for months. What the percentile does tell you: the market is one-sided, the exit is crowded, and surprises against the crowd travel further. A risk state.
How we use it
The percentile decides which markets get a signal file, the weeks-in-zone counter shows how long the lean has lasted, and the base rates say what comparable extremes actually did. Nothing on this site converts a percentile into a prediction.