S&P 500 (E-mini) the file, every extreme since 2006

separate extremes on file (back-to-back extreme weeks count once), numbered on the chart, none hidden

16 ended in a reversal within 13 weeksthe ones that turned took a median 3.6 wksworst run ever sat through 9.5%what marked those turns → measured in this file

3y percentile

80.1

cot index

60.2

z-score · 156w

0.85

weeks in zone

—

report as of

2026-08-04

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#27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 LONG ● TURN 2025-04-04 · #25 SHORT ● TURN 2023-07-17 · #24 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #23 SHORT ● TURN 2022-08-12 · #22 LONG ● TURN 2022-02-23 · #21 LONG ● TURN 2021-12-01 · #20 SHORT ● TURN 2020-05-29 · #19 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #18 LONG ● TURN 2018-10-10 · #17 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #16 LONG ● TURN 2018-02-05 · #15 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #14 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ● TURN 2016-03-11 · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2015-10-28 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 LONG ● TURN 2013-08-27 · #8 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ● TURN 2011-10-24 · #6 LONG ● TURN 2009-02-17 · #5 SHORT ● TURN 2007-08-08 · #4 SHORT ● TURN 2007-04-20 · #3 LONG ● TURN 2007-03-05 · #2 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #1 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 3.6 WKS · WORST RUN 9.5%#27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 LONG ● TURN 2025-04-04 · #25 SHORT ● TURN 2023-07-17 · #24 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #23 SHORT ● TURN 2022-08-12 · #22 LONG ● TURN 2022-02-23 · #21 LONG ● TURN 2021-12-01 · #20 SHORT ● TURN 2020-05-29 · #19 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #18 LONG ● TURN 2018-10-10 · #17 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #16 LONG ● TURN 2018-02-05 · #15 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #14 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 SHORT ● TURN 2016-03-11 · #11 SHORT ● TURN 2015-10-28 · #10 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #9 LONG ● TURN 2013-08-27 · #8 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #7 SHORT ● TURN 2011-10-24 · #6 LONG ● TURN 2009-02-17 · #5 SHORT ● TURN 2007-08-08 · #4 SHORT ● TURN 2007-04-20 · #3 LONG ● TURN 2007-03-05 · #2 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #1 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 3.6 WKS · WORST RUN 9.5%

the S&P 500 (E-mini) report →is S&P 500 (E-mini) stretched now? →

Every SP500 EMINI trade on file · 27 since 2006+

Historical analysis for information and education only, not advice, not a recommendation, not a solicitation. Results are model-based (front-month price proxies, weekly data), can contain errors, and would differ with costs, slippage and live execution. Past performance is no indicator of future results.

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Every SP500 EMINI extreme since 2006, numbered on the chart: which ones turned, which ones never did, and how much of the move was still there by the time it fired.

every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019

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