THE FORWARD TEST · RUSSELL 2000 (E-MINI) FILE · TRADE #1 · ENTERED BY THE FROZEN RULE
Russell 2000 (E-mini) · crowd long · Sep 2017 on file without a graded return
fade short · graded at the 8-week horizon · on the record for good
On Sep 12, 2017 the russell 2000 (e-mini) crowd sat at the very top of its own three-year range: net long past 99% of it. The frozen rule faded that at the Sep 18, 2017 open, blind. Its window is on file without a graded return, so this page shows the entry and the path and claims nothing about the outcome.
WHY THIS TRADE EXISTS
No one chose it. The rule enters every extreme it sees, at the next session’s open, blind, on purpose. This file answers one question: what was the extreme worth, measured against every comparable extreme in russell 2000 (e-mini)’s own record? The published answer is “not much”. Most cases do not turn. That is exactly why the file records what else was present when this market did turn.
Why no stop, no exit? Because this is a measurement, not a managed position. The question is what the extreme was worth under one frozen rule, every time: a stop would smuggle discretion and survivorship back into the record. The adverse sit-through is published for exactly that reason, and the clock, not a choice, closes the window at W13.
russell 2000 (e-mini)’s record: 5 of 9 comparable extremes turned inside the window · median wait 15 wks · this one: never crossed
THE FILE · NOTES AS IT RUNS
SEP 18 · WK 0 · ENTRY
entered at the open. the extreme alone is worthless; this file is everything else that was present.
● THE READ · PLAIN TEXT, GATE BY GATE
AS OFEntered blind, but not empty-handed: 5 of 9 comparable extremes here turned, and the entry conditions lean turn on 0 of 5 counts. The record leans turn. The job now is to watch the gates.
written by the numbers · the read re-writes itself as each Friday grade lands · click a gate or scrub the chart below · a measurement, not a recommendation
THE DIRECTION▼ SHORT · FADING THE LONG CROWD
The crowd is long; this file bets against it, short from the entry arrow above the bars. Trend-following, the other classic COT read, would ride with the crowd (long here): same tape, mirror sign. We pre-registered follow-the-crowd rules across the whole record too: no edge either. the tables →
THE TRADE ON THE TAPE · PRICE + WEEKLY POSITIONING · one numbered entry: this one · gate ticks mark the window
all entries on the full chart →middle pane: who holds what (% of open interest) · bottom: how crowded (red lines = extreme zone) · drag to pan, scroll to zoom · weekly bars · positioning drawn as steps · front-month proxy
THE PATH VS THE RECORD · TWO CORRIDORS · green = where past turns ran · red = where ran-ons drifted · dots = every case at the cursor gate
AT GATE
entry
hover the chart to scrub
THIS TRADE
0.0%
its bar here: —
TURNED BY HERE
0
of 9 on the record
OF THOSE STILL UNDER
—
a read on late turns, not a promise
GRADED GATES · FORWARD ODDS
latest gate on top · click a gate to move the cursor · forward odds = of past extremes over their bar at that gate, the share still over at W13 · what would mark the turn →
pro · the conditions are in the file
Every condition at trade #1’s entry, measured against russell emini’s own turned-vs-ran-on record, with a lean per condition.
every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019
Unlock everything · €49/mo →trade #1 of 11 on russell 2000 (e-mini) · entry at the first session open after the friday release · fade the crowd, no filters, no discretion · graded against 0.75× own volatility, √time scaled, within 13 weeks · continuous front-month file, close-to-close, roll gaps included, no costs/slippage · a turn is only awarded by the weekly pipeline · training era · win or lose, this file stays. methodology → · what we tested and buried →