THE FORWARD TEST · NATURAL GAS FILE · TRADE #23 · ENTERED BY THE FROZEN RULE
Natural Gas · crowd short · Dec 2023 over its bar at week 4 · no turn ever confirmed
fade long · graded at the 13-week horizon · on the record for good
On Dec 5, 2023 the natural gas crowd was net short past 97% of its own three-year range, so the frozen rule faded it at the Dec 11, 2023 open. It got over its 17.2% bar at week 4 and handed the move straight back. No turn was confirmed, and the 13-week close was -33.5%. The worst point was 36.7% under water, and it was the clock that closed the window, not a stop. Thirteen weeks later, tracked but never graded, it read +16.8%: the opposite side of zero from where the test left it.
WHY THIS TRADE EXISTS
No one chose it. The rule enters every extreme it sees, at the next session’s open, blind, on purpose. This file answers one question: what was the extreme worth, measured against every comparable extreme in natural gas’s own record? The published answer is “not much”. Most cases do not turn. That is exactly why the file records what else was present when this market did turn.
Why no stop, no exit? Because this is a measurement, not a managed position. The question is what the extreme was worth under one frozen rule, every time: a stop would smuggle discretion and survivorship back into the record. The adverse sit-through is published for exactly that reason, and the clock, not a choice, closes the window at W13.
natural gas’s record: 7 of 24 comparable extremes turned inside the window · median wait 21 wks · this one: crossed at W4
THE FILE · NOTES AS IT RUNS
MAR 11 · WINDOW CLOSED
no confirmed turn in 13 weeks · the crowd was right this time. on the record it stays.
MAR 11 · AFTER THE W13 GRADE
under its bar: -33.5% vs +33.1% needed · 0% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
FEB 5 · AFTER THE W8 GRADE
gate over the bar: -23.0% against +25.1% needed · 12 of 24 past extremes were over here, 58% of those held it to W13.
JAN 8 · AFTER THE W4 GRADE
gate over the bar: +22.0% against +17.2% needed · 12 of 24 past extremes were over here, 42% of those held it to W13.
DEC 25 · AFTER THE W2 GRADE
under its bar: +2.4% vs +11.9% needed · 25% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
DEC 18 · AFTER THE W1 GRADE
under its bar: +0.5% vs +8.2% needed · 28% of the still-under cases on file turned later.
DEC 11 · WK 0 · ENTRY
entered at the open. the extreme alone is worthless; this file is everything else that was present.
● THE READ · PLAIN TEXT, GATE BY GATE
AS OFThe window closes under the bar: -33.5% against the +33.1% needed. The crowd was right this time. That result stays on the record, like every other one.
written by the numbers · the read re-writes itself as each Friday grade lands · click a gate or scrub the chart below · a measurement, not a recommendation
THE DIRECTION▲ LONG · FADING THE SHORT CROWD
The crowd is short; this file bets against it, long from the entry arrow below the bars. Trend-following, the other classic COT read, would ride with the crowd (short here): same tape, mirror sign · where this fade reads −33.5%, riding the crowd reads +33.5%. We pre-registered follow-the-crowd rules across the whole record too: no edge either. the tables →
THE TRADE ON THE TAPE · PRICE + WEEKLY POSITIONING · one numbered entry: this one · gate ticks mark the window
all entries on the full chart →middle pane: who holds what (% of open interest) · bottom: how crowded (red lines = extreme zone) · drag to pan, scroll to zoom · weekly bars · positioning drawn as steps · front-month proxy
THE PATH VS THE RECORD · TWO CORRIDORS · green = where past turns ran · red = where ran-ons drifted · dots = every case at the cursor gate
AT GATE
W13 of 13
hover the chart to scrub
THIS TRADE
-33.5%
its bar here: +33.1%
TURNED BY HERE
7
of 24 on the record
OF THOSE STILL UNDER
0% turned later
a read on late turns, not a promise
GRADED GATES · FORWARD ODDS
latest gate on top · click a gate to move the cursor · forward odds = of past extremes over their bar at that gate, the share still over at W13 · what would mark the turn →
pro · the conditions are in the file
Every condition at trade #23’s entry, measured against natgas’s own turned-vs-ran-on record, with a lean per condition.
every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019
Unlock everything · €49/mo →trade #23 of 25 on natural gas · entry at the first session open after the friday release · fade the crowd, no filters, no discretion · graded against 0.75× own volatility, √time scaled, within 13 weeks · continuous front-month file, close-to-close, roll gaps included, no costs/slippage · a turn is only awarded by the weekly pipeline · out-of-sample era · win or lose, this file stays. methodology → · what we tested and buried →