Cocoa the file, every extreme since 2006

separate extremes on file (back-to-back extreme weeks count once), numbered on the chart, none hidden

9 ended in a reversal within 13 weeksthe ones that turned took a median 3.4 wksworst run ever sat through 51.4%what marked those turns → measured in this file

3y percentile

22.4

cot index

17.4

z-score · 156w

-1.02

weeks in zone

—

report as of

2026-08-04

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#29 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #28 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #25 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #24 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #23 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #22 SHORT ● TURN 2023-01-09 · #21 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #20 LONG ● TURN 2020-03-13 · #19 LONG ● TURN 2019-12-19 · #18 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #17 SHORT ● TURN 2017-05-12 · #16 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #14 SHORT ● TURN 2016-03-14 · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #11 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #10 LONG ● TURN 2013-03-06 · #9 SHORT ● TURN 2011-01-20 · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #6 LONG ● TURN 2007-10-08 · #5 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #4 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #3 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #2 LONG ● TURN 2006-07-18 · #1 LONG ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 3.4 WKS · WORST RUN 51.4%#29 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #28 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #27 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #26 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #25 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #24 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #23 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #22 SHORT ● TURN 2023-01-09 · #21 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #20 LONG ● TURN 2020-03-13 · #19 LONG ● TURN 2019-12-19 · #18 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #17 SHORT ● TURN 2017-05-12 · #16 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #15 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #14 SHORT ● TURN 2016-03-14 · #13 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #12 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #11 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #10 LONG ● TURN 2013-03-06 · #9 SHORT ● TURN 2011-01-20 · #8 SHORT ✗ NO TURN · #7 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #6 LONG ● TURN 2007-10-08 · #5 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #4 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #3 LONG ✗ NO TURN · #2 LONG ● TURN 2006-07-18 · #1 LONG ✗ NO TURN · MEDIAN TURN 3.4 WKS · WORST RUN 51.4%

the Cocoa report →is Cocoa stretched now? →

Every COCOA trade on file · 29 since 2006+

Historical analysis for information and education only, not advice, not a recommendation, not a solicitation. Results are model-based (front-month price proxies, weekly data), can contain errors, and would differ with costs, slippage and live execution. Past performance is no indicator of future results.

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Every COCOA extreme since 2006, numbered on the chart: which ones turned, which ones never did, and how much of the move was still there by the time it fired.

every losing case published · one frozen rule · graded in public since 2019

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